Experts: China reassessing N. Korea's strategic value as card against US

Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang has prompted analysts to conclude that China is reassessing North Korea's strategic value and shifting its approach from passive management to active partnership — a recalibration driven by Beijing's desire to use Pyongyang as a card to check Washington amid deepening US-China rivalry.

The Washington Post said Sunday that Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had celebrated an "unbreakable bond" between the two countries while presenting a united front against the Western-led international order.

The New York Times noted that Xi had stressed close strategic communication and deeper exchanges across all sectors with Kim, interpreting the visit as Beijing's attempt to balance Russia's expanding influence over North Korea. The Times said Xi had subtly reminded Pyongyang that China remains its most important benefactor, economic partner and buffer against the United States.

"If Kim Jong-un can successfully balance between his two great-power neighbors, China and Russia, he will feel even less restrained in developing nuclear weapons — further unsettling US allies in the region who are already worried about China's military rise and Washington's ability to honor its defense commitments," the Times said.

CNN reported that despite the deepening North Korea-Russia relationship, Beijing's clear message was that "China remains North Korea's most important economic lifeline and diplomatic partner." The network added that Xi's visit had opened another chapter in Pyongyang's long-standing balancing diplomacy — pursuing military and economic benefits from both China and Russia without becoming overly dependent on either.

In that reading, China checked North Korea's growing reliance on Russia at a manageable level, while North Korea leveraged its position between Beijing and Moscow to secure tangible gains — including expanded economic cooperation — and assert its relevance.

Foreign media also noted that Xi focused on strengthening cooperation with North Korea against the Western-centered international order while making no public mention of denuclearization.

The New York Times flagged the absence of any reference to North Korea's nuclear program in China's post-summit statement as a significant shift. Earlier joint statements from China-North Korea meetings had included language pledging cooperation toward ending Pyongyang's nuclear program, but such wording disappeared after Kim visited Beijing for a face-to-face meeting with Xi in September last year to mark China's Victory Day.

Bloomberg reported that while Xi told Kim he would expand cooperation in trade, agriculture and technology, there was no public mention of North Korea's nuclear program. Bloomberg said Xi had instead reaffirmed China's traditional role as Pyongyang's most important political patron and economic lifeline, rather than publicly pressing Kim on denuclearization.

British media similarly characterized the summit as China's attempt to recover influence over North Korea that had waned in recent years, arguing that Beijing's desire to check the North Korea-Russia alignment and reassert its sway led it to steer clear of nuclear negotiations.

BBC said that for Xi, "North Korea is a neighbor China can neither control nor afford to lose," adding that "distrust has strained the relationship for years, and China is now trying to rebuild its leverage over a partner that is strategically vital but entirely unpredictable." The broadcaster said Beijing wants border stability and influence over North Korea but does not want to be drawn into a crisis triggered by Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, concluding that Xi's visit "is more likely about securing leverage than friendship."

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said China is undergoing a fundamental reassessment of North Korea's strategic value in response to shifting external conditions. "In the past, the approach was essentially about managing North Korea to prevent it from causing problems," he said. "Now the need to actively strengthen the relationship has grown considerably."

Hong added that as US-China competition intensifies and pressure on Beijing mounts through frameworks such as the South Korea-US-Japan security cooperation and the Quad, "China's need to use North Korea as a card to check the United States has grown."

The shift is also visible in the military domain. Hong noted that the explicit mention of military-to-military exchanges in the summit outcome was a distinctive feature, saying it "suggests the possibility of substantive military cooperation beyond symbolic gestures." That has fueled speculation about various forms of linkage, including joint exercises, military intelligence sharing, and logistics and technology cooperation.

Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Policy Institute, said North Korea's emphasis on "blue-water operational capability" reflects more than a simple display of force. "Behind it lies an intention to secure a military stake within the framework of North Korea-China-Russia cooperation," he said. "If North Korea acquires open-ocean operational capability alongside its nuclear arsenal, it could expand its influence in the maritime security landscape of Northeast Asia."

As the China-North Korea relationship grows closer, North Korea stands to secure a strategic rear, but its room for maneuver may also narrow under Beijing's influence. Analysts say the partnership could serve a dual function — coordinating a united front against the United States while simultaneously restraining military escalation.

Experts are urging South Korea to move beyond its traditional North Korea nuclear-focused response and pursue a broader strategic approach.

"We need to maintain deterrence while widening our strategic horizon to manage the arms race and instability across Northeast Asia as a whole," Hong said. "South Korea should take the lead in driving arms control and crisis management discussions through multilateral consultative bodies."