US-Iran talks resume after two weeks of strikes, but likely limited to Strait of Hormuz passage

US-Iran talks that resumed after two weeks of mutual airstrikes are widely expected to remain a narrow, single-issue negotiation focused on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, which is mediating the talks, has been concentrating its discussions with Iran on managing the strait — and Iran has publicly pledged to continue supporting Hezbollah in its war against Israel in Lebanon.

According to the Financial Times, an Omani delegation visited Iran on July 24 and 25 (local time) to discuss arrangements for managing transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The talks explored a quota-based approach to reopening the strait — setting limits on the number of vessels passing through the southern corridor near Omani waters and through Iranian territorial waters, with both Oman and Iran jointly overseeing passage.

Discussions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz made some progress through back-channel US-Iran communications that began July 24. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz appeared on NBC on Sunday (local time) and said, "The talks (between the US and Iran) are ongoing. They are happening at every level, from technical to the highest levels."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said July 25 (local time) that the talks with the Omani delegation had been "constructive" and had produced some "progress." Baghaei told local media Sunday that Iran and Oman "exchanged views on shared principles and operational mechanisms for the safe management of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while respecting the sovereign rights of both countries," adding that the dialogue was continuing.

Even if the current talks lead to a resumption of Strait of Hormuz passage, the other elements of the US-Iran ceasefire MOU — including the resumption of nuclear negotiations — are unlikely to proceed smoothly. The Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, which Iran has set as a precondition for returning to nuclear talks, continues to intensify.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, sent a letter Sunday to Naim Qassem, secretary-general of Hezbollah, reaffirming Iran's commitment to continued support for the group. In a post on X, Khamenei wrote: "In accordance with the policy set by the great martyr, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran considers it a strategic duty to defend these oppressed yet powerful mujahideen." He added that "as the nations of the world grow weary of the tyranny and oppression of the American government and the criminal Zionists (Israel) — destroyers of lives and generations — there is no path forward except jihad and resistance."

"Mujahideen" refers to warriors who take part in jihad, a holy war waged in the name of the Islamic faith; in the post, Khamenei used the term to refer to Hezbollah. Khamenei also wrote that he had "designated the maintenance of Lebanon's territorial integrity and an absolute and unconditional end to the Zionist regime's attacks as the primary conditions of any agreement to end the war imposed in confronting aggressive America." The statement reaffirmed that Israel must halt its attacks on Hezbollah before any ceasefire deal can be reached.

As long as Iran continues to back Hezbollah, Israel is unlikely to halt its airstrikes against the group. From Iran's perspective — which holds that a ceasefire must include an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah — Israel has already broken the ceasefire MOU, leaving Iran free to argue it is under no obligation to fulfill the agreement's provisions, including the 60-day period of substantive negotiations the MOU stipulated.