Iran may end up winning control of the Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations between Iran and Oman over resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching a concrete agreement, according to people familiar with the talks. The emerging framework — under which ships would pay a service fee and Iran would in effect control the shipping lanes — has raised the prospect that the United States may ultimately accept Iranian dominance over the strategic waterway.

The New York Times reported Monday, citing two Iranian officials familiar with the negotiations, that Iran and Oman are in final-stage talks over a new transit arrangement for the strait.

Under the framework being discussed, vessels entering the strait would travel through waters controlled by Iran, while ships exiting would use a route closer to Omani-managed waters, the Times reported. The two countries are also negotiating a service fee — covering environmental protection, security and personnel costs — to be split equally between them.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed Monday that Iran and Oman had exchanged maps showing the proposed new shipping routes. He said the two sides were discussing a single bidirectional lane rather than the existing north-south traffic separation scheme.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz operated under an internationally agreed traffic separation scheme that routed most traffic through Omani territorial waters. If the current proposal takes effect, Iran would secure effective authority over both the operation of the lanes and the management of transit through them.

The United States has maintained that freedom of navigation must be restored to prewar conditions, while Iran has made sovereign control over the strait a central condition of any deal.

Early in the conflict, the imposition of tolls was cited as Iran's primary demand, but analysts say the focus has since shifted toward a system in which Iran grants permission for individual vessels to transit. Iran used the strait's closure as powerful leverage in negotiations with Washington and paid a significant military price to secure that leverage — factors analysts say make it unlikely to relinquish control easily.

President Donald Trump said Monday he was in discussions with Iran about fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday and that any toll charge was unacceptable. Yet with Oman serving as the primary mediator and driving the talks alongside Iran, some analysts say the United States may ultimately accept whatever agreement emerges.

Analysts also note that framing any deal as an agreement between Iran and Oman — rather than a direct US concession — could allow Washington to deflect some of the political burden of appearing to recognize Iranian control. Iran's use of the term "service fee" rather than "toll" has also been cited as a possible face-saving formula.

The New York Times said that if such a deal is reached, the international community may effectively end up paying the price of legitimizing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump launched military action under the stated goal of eliminating Iran's nuclear program, but the outcome, the Times argued, may be that Iran has emerged with an even firmer grip on the strait as a strategic asset.

Skepticism about such an arrangement remains significant, however. Iranian mines remain in Omani waters as well, meaning safe navigation would still require Iranian cooperation regardless of any deal — a situation critics say amounts to capitulation by Washington. Iran, for its part, is said to worry that reopening the strait offers no guarantee the United States will not take further military action.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, told the Times that "any solution that recognizes Iran's control over the strait will be hard for President Trump to accept, but there is no realistic military way to eliminate it." He added that Trump "is now in a position where he must choose between a war he cannot win and a peace he finds unpalatable."