Kim Young-bae: 'We took real estate sentiment too lightly' as Seoul support fell 20 points

Kim Young-bae, a Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker and chair of the party's Seoul chapter, said the party "took real estate sentiment a bit too lightly" in analyzing its defeat in the Seoul mayoral election.

Speaking on BBS Radio's "Morning Journal with Jeong Hye-seung" on Monday, Kim said support among Seoul residents had dropped roughly 20 percentage points compared with a year into the current administration. "Approval in Seoul, which had exceeded 60 percent, has fallen below 40 percent — and frankly, the situation among voters in their 20s and 30s is serious," he said.

"Ultimately, it comes down to two keywords: real estate and the 20s-and-30s demographic," Kim said. He added that the party had a roadmap to use those two issues as a springboard heading into a possible Seoul mayoral by-election next year and then toward a general election victory, though he acknowledged the path would not be easy.

On real estate sentiment in Seoul, Kim said a debate over whether to extend the heavy capital gains tax surcharge, set to expire May 9, had left many Seoul residents with the strong impression that "President Lee Jae Myung was trying to raise taxes." Residents along the Han River belt in particular had shown considerable resistance, and that sentiment showed up in the vote, he said.

Kim also noted that the vote total for Seoul mayoral candidate Jeong Won-o ran about 200,000 short of the combined tally for the party's 25 district mayor candidates. "That gap reflects how complacent and arrogant the mayoral campaign was," he said. "They ran the election thinking, 'President Lee Jae Myung is doing well — we'll probably win even without trying hard.'"

On real estate tax reform, Kim said the party supports the current direction of restructuring the tax system around owner-occupiers, but urged that single-home owners who do not live in their properties be given strong protection. "There are many people who own one home but don't live in it for various reasons, and I made a clear recommendation that we move toward giving those single-home owners robust protection," he said. "The issue of non-resident single-home owners must be resolved."

He added that the party also needs some flexibility on the heavy capital gains tax surcharge, which could end up shifting the burden onto jeonse and monthly rent tenants, as well as on provisions that cap the comprehensive real estate tax in ways that increase the overall tax burden. "Once the government bill comes over after Sept. 3, the party plans to pass it by late November — we intend to actively discuss ways to fully reflect public opinion and ease the burden on Seoul residents," he said.

Responding to Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's proposal to use the Tancheon Water Reclamation Center site — rather than the Yongsan Children's Park — as a downtown housing supply location, Kim acknowledged the site's merits. "It covers about 363,000 square meters and is in a great location, with SETEC and Samsung Medical Center nearby," he said. However, he criticized Oh for failing to explain where the water reclamation facility — a sewage treatment plant in older parlance — would be relocated. "He put up a rendering saying 12,000 units could be built there, but offered no realistic alternative as Seoul mayor. That is an irresponsible attitude," Kim said. He added that even burying the facility underground alone would cost an enormous amount and take well over 10 years.

"I would like to ask Mayor Oh to stop making statements that are only possible in dreams, and instead give positive consideration to realistic alternatives — not just Yongsan, but various other feasible options," Kim said. He suggested one possible compromise: designating Tancheon as a supply site 15 years down the road while proceeding with a defined level of housing development at Yongsan in the near term.