'Don't think it can't happen here': Expert warns Korea faces same landslide risks as Nepal

The death toll from catastrophic flooding along the Nepal-Tibet border has surpassed 1,000, with casualties and damage continuing to mount. A disaster expert has warned that South Korea could face a similarly devastating event at any time, saying the underlying conditions are not fundamentally different.

Choi Myung-ki, a professor with the Korea Industrial Field Professors Corps, appeared on YTN Radio's "Seulgiroun Radio Saenghwal" on Monday and said it is easy to assume Nepal and South Korea are entirely different situations, but structurally the two countries are nearly identical in terms of disaster risk.

"A place that had seemed safe for a long time suddenly collapsed, and even when warnings sounded, there was not enough time to evacuate," Choi said. "The fundamental structure of the disaster itself is no different."

According to Chinese authorities, the flooding was triggered by an "ice-rock collapse" — a simultaneous failure of ice and rock — on the southern slope of Langtang Lirung at an elevation of about 5,200 meters.

The ice and rock cascaded rapidly down to roughly 4,000 meters, sweeping up soil and debris along the slope to form a massive torrent. The flow reached the Gyirong port of entry at about 1,800 meters, destroying 27 buildings and associated facilities across an area equivalent to roughly 100 soccer fields. From the moment of the collapse to the time the torrent struck Gyirong, only six to seven minutes elapsed.

South Korea has no glaciers like those in Nepal, but Choi said intense localized downpours could produce similarly dangerous debris flows just as quickly.

"When heavy rain hits, water rushing down steep slopes can engulf villages or trigger landslides," he said. "Pensions and campsites in the valleys of Gangwon Province, Jirisan and Seoraksan share exactly the same narrow-gorge terrain conditions."

"Even if a warning is issued upstream, the time it takes for a debris flow to reach downstream is extremely short," Choi said. "If the flow moves fast enough, there simply is not enough time to evacuate. In that respect, Nepal and Korea are exactly the same."

He said South Korea may in fact face a greater risk than Nepal because of man-made hazards scattered across the country — aging reservoirs and below-ground road underpasses among them — that could amplify the destructive power of heavy rain and trigger large-scale landslides.

"Solar panel installations, aging reservoirs, slopes in Gangwon Province and North Gyeongsang Province left unattended after major wildfires — these are all areas where heavy rain can very easily set off landslides," Choi said. "The core issue in a disaster like this is whether, after a warning sounds, people actually have enough time to reach safety."

Choi said South Korea's current warning systems are reasonably well developed, but added that a more fundamental shift is needed. "We need to move away from simply waiting for water levels to rise and then measuring them, toward a paradigm of real-time tracking, prediction and early warning — that is the kind of change in disaster management that is truly necessary," he said.