China cracked DUV — but EUV is 15 years away, says ASML's key partner

China would need roughly 15 years to develop EUV lithography equipment — the cutting-edge semiconductor technology it has been blocked from obtaining under US export controls — according to a senior executive at one of the industry's most critical suppliers.

Frank Romund, who oversees the semiconductor division at Germany's Zeiss Group, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that China needs 15 years to develop EUV lithography equipment, while cautioning that it is difficult to quantify how far China has progressed.

The assessment echoes views from investment banks. UBS previously published a report concluding that China is at least 10 years behind in developing its own EUV technology.

EUV lithography machines are essential for producing advanced semiconductors, and Dutch company ASML is the sole manufacturer in the world. ASML cemented that monopoly in 2017 when it acquired a stake in Zeiss's semiconductor unit for 1 billion euros ($1.16 billion). Zeiss is the exclusive supplier of the optical components that go inside EUV machines.

China, which has made semiconductor self-sufficiency a national priority, has been investing heavily in developing its own chip equipment. It had previously relied on ASML for deep ultraviolet, or DUV, lithography machines — the generation before EUV.

The United States has moved to block ASML from exporting EUV machines to China, and has also required export licenses for the latest DUV models, as part of broader efforts to curb China's semiconductor ambitions.

Romund warned, however, that such export restrictions not only hurt his company's business but could "actually accelerate technological innovation inside China." His concern appears well-founded: after the US moved to restrict DUV exports as well, a Shanghai-based company reported in July that it had successfully manufactured a DUV lithography machine.

Romund said China's DUV breakthrough was "not surprising" and that how well the Chinese equipment actually performs remains to be seen. "We are still ahead," he added.