North Korea-US summit possible as early as November-December, experts say

A summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could take place as early as November or December, analysts said.

Former USFK Commander Vincent Brooks, speaking Thursday at a forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, stressed that "we need to recognize that signals are constantly being sent" from North Korea.

Brooks noted that while North Korea has used "insulting language" toward South Korea, it has refrained from using the same tone toward the United States — a sign, he said, that Pyongyang is "keeping the door open" for dialogue with Washington. At the same time, he said, North Korea is also signaling that it is "not ready right now," suggesting it would have sent different signals if it were prepared to engage immediately.

"Both sides will want to find a point of contact this fall, and after that they will want to have an opportunity for substantive follow-on discussions," he said.

He identified the window between November, when US midterm elections are held, and December, when the G20 summit takes place in the United States, as "the earliest possible timeframe" for a North Korea-US summit.

He added, however, that the earlier a summit is held, the more it risks being a "show" with little substance, while a later meeting would be more likely to yield meaningful outcomes. "It is more likely to happen after both events — the midterms and the G20 — have passed," he said.

Brooks said he does not agree with the view that North Korea's denuclearization is impossible, arguing that if Pyongyang could "exchange one security guarantee — nuclear weapons — for another form of security guarantee," denuclearization would not be out of reach.

Victor Cha, CSIS Korea Chair, said North Korea's response so far "has not been positive, but it is also conditional," and assessed that Kim Yo-jong's recent statements reflect her "usual hardliner role while still keeping the door open."

Cha said North Korea likely believes its leverage will grow after the November midterms, on the assumption that Trump could be weakened politically. "North Korea will definitely wait for the midterm results before any talks," he said.

Cha also raised the possibility that Trump could invite Kim to the G20 summit on US soil. This year's G20 is scheduled for Dec. 14-15 at Trump National Doral Resort in Miami, Florida. "You can imagine a scenario where Trump invites North Korea to the G20," Cha said, adding that such a move "would be an event that draws the world's attention all at once while the US is hosting the G20."

While many observers doubt North Korea would agree to talks — given that the first-term summits ended without results and that Pyongyang now has the backing of China and Russia — Cha said North Korea still has sufficient incentive to engage. Meeting with the United States, he said, "can improve North Korea's position vis-à-vis both China and Russia by showing that it has an active hedge — an alternative relationship."

He added that "North Korea has watched what the US did with Iran and Venezuela, and potentially what it could do with Cuba," and said it "makes sense for North Korea to maintain some point of contact with the president to minimize the possibility of that happening to them."

Cha also argued that South Korea's pursuit of nuclear submarines and uranium enrichment and reprocessing capabilities could give North Korea additional motivation to engage in dialogue with Washington.

On the question of whether Trump's recent unilateral reduction of joint US-South Korea military exercises represents a preemptive concession ahead of a North Korea-US summit, Cha rebuffed that interpretation, calling it instead a reciprocal measure in response to North Korea refraining from nuclear tests and long-range ballistic missile launches since the start of the Trump administration's second term.

Brooks, by contrast, acknowledged that scaling back the exercises could help open the door to North Korea-US dialogue, but called the reduction "a highly disrespectful act toward the alliance" that has undermined military readiness, US security commitments, and the deterrent effect against North Korea, China and Russia.

"That is why the trilateral exercise among South Korea, Japan and the United States — Freedom Edge — scheduled for next week is particularly important," he said. "It is very important that that exercise not be canceled."