US-Iran ceasefire MOU nears signing: Hormuz opening, nuclear weapons ban, 60-day talks framework

Negotiations between the United States and Iran on a ceasefire memorandum of understanding have entered their final drafting stage, drawing attention to what the agreement would actually contain. President Donald Trump said a signing ceremony could take place in Europe as early as this weekend, but Iran drew a line, saying it had not yet granted final approval. While the two sides are said to have narrowed their differences considerably, approval from Iran's supreme leadership and the precise wording on the nuclear program have emerged as the last remaining hurdles.

According to Axios, Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks in Iran late into the night on Wednesday. Sources familiar with the negotiations said Qatar and Iran believed they had largely reached a compromise that the United States could also accept.

Trump said Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz would open immediately upon the signing of the ceasefire MOU. Asked whether the US military's maritime blockade on Iran would also be lifted at once, Trump said yes. "Iran will not have nuclear weapons. They have agreed to that," he said. "Iran will not have, purchase or develop nuclear weapons in any form."

Trump declined to specify how long nuclear negotiations with Iran would continue after the MOU. When asked about a deadline, he said the talks would move fairly quickly but added, "I don't want to talk about a deadline. If I say a deadline, they'll say, 'Oh, he missed the deadline.'" He also described the MOU as "very strong and detailed" while acknowledging it was "somewhat conceptual." The working-level draft the two sides had tentatively agreed on called for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, and the launch of full-scale denuclearization talks during that period.

Trump was reported to have rejected that draft on May 29, saying it needed stronger and more specific language on Iran's nuclear commitments and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The MOU now said to be near conclusion may therefore include more detailed provisions — compared with the earlier draft — on the disposal of Iran's highly enriched uranium and a halt to further enrichment.

Synthesizing reports from Axios and other outlets, the current negotiations center on three issues: the method for releasing Iran's frozen assets, the procedure for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the road map for future nuclear talks.

The frozen assets question is considered Iran's top priority. Tehran has demanded the early release of at least $24 billion of the roughly $100 billion in assets frozen abroad. With the economic burden of a prolonged war mounting, recovering those assets is in effect one of the biggest gains Iran needs to secure from any deal.

The United States is using sanctions relief as a negotiating card but has not disclosed the specific scale or timing of any release. Given the pace of progress, however, analysts suggest the two sides may have largely converged on some level of asset release or a phased sanctions-relief arrangement.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is also a major sticking point. The two sides are reported to be discussing a plan to normalize passage through the strait immediately after the MOU is signed. Roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil shipments pass through the waterway, making it the issue markets are watching most closely.

Trump's statement that the strait would open the moment the agreement is signed reflects his awareness of the stabilizing effect on international energy markets. As news of negotiating progress spread, international oil prices fell and US stock markets rose. Investors expect that a normalization of the Strait of Hormuz would substantially ease concerns about crude supply disruptions.

The most difficult issue remains the nuclear program. The MOU under discussion is understood to be closer to a framework that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and use that period to conduct follow-on nuclear negotiations. The United States is pursuing a long-term agreement that would structurally eliminate Iran's nuclear development capabilities, while Iran wants guaranteed rights to civilian nuclear activity and a certain level of uranium enrichment.

Axios reported that the two sides had also made significant progress on how to conduct nuclear program negotiations during the 60-day ceasefire period. Key sticking points — including how much uranium enrichment to permit and how to dispose of highly enriched uranium already stockpiled — were said to remain unresolved, however.

Israel has taken a harder line. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office issued a statement after a call with Trump, saying any final agreement must include the removal of enriched uranium, the dismantlement of uranium enrichment facilities, limits on missile production and an end to support for Iran-backed armed groups.

The prime minister's office noted that Israel is not a direct party to the MOU, but said Trump had confirmed he would maintain those conditions as the ultimate goals of the final negotiations. In effect, this amounts to demanding a level of denuclearization far beyond what was required under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

Meanwhile, Qatar's active mediation has been credited with accelerating the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. CNN reported that Qatari officials' recent mediation efforts in Tehran played a decisive role in narrowing the core differences between the two sides. "The mediators made a real breakthrough," one source said. "We are cautiously optimistic about reaching a deal."

Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi had met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran from Wednesday through the early hours of Thursday to work through remaining differences. Those talks were said to have produced significant progress on the three issues considered the hardest to resolve: the method for releasing Iran's frozen assets, the framework for future nuclear negotiations, and the plan for normal operation of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to sources, Iran transmitted a revised draft agreement to the United States through Qatar earlier this week, and the US responded with its own position, substantially narrowing the gap between the two sides.