Taiwan's population to fall below 20 million by 2045, with fertility rate lower than South Korea's

Taiwan, which has already entered super-aged society status, is projected to see its population fall below 20 million by 2045, as a low birth rate and rapid aging deepen simultaneously and raise growing concerns about labor shortages.

According to population projections for 2026–2075 released Monday by Taiwan's National Development Council, the island's total population peaked at about 23.6 million in 2019 before beginning to decline. It is expected to stand at about 23.19 million this year and shrink to about 19.98 million by 2045 — four years earlier than the previously projected threshold year of 2049.

The NDC said that if the downward trend continues, the total population could fall to about 12.15 million by 2075, roughly half of today's level.

The pace of aging is also accelerating. The share of the population aged 65 or older is forecast to reach 37 percent by 2045 and climb to 52.9 percent by 2075 — meaning in effect that one in every two people will be elderly.

Taiwan's low birth rate is serious even by the standards of major Asian economies. The NDC estimated Taiwan's total fertility rate at 0.78 in 2025, lower than South Korea's 0.8, Singapore's 0.87 and Japan's 1.14.

The number of newborns is also falling sharply. Last year's birth count hit a record low of 107,812, and this year the figure is expected to drop below 100,000 for the first time, to around 94,000.

The most pressing consequence of population decline is a shrinking workforce. The working-age population between 15 and 64 is projected to plunge from about 15.76 million this year to about 5.13 million by 2075. After 2037, more than half of the working-age population is expected to be in the 45–64 age bracket.

The NDC said that improving workforce management and redesigning jobs to raise productivity could push back the end of the demographic dividend from the previously projected 2028 to beyond 2030.

The Taiwanese government has moved to address the decline. Executive Yuan spokesperson Li Huizhi said the government has launched a new population strategy, elevating population and family policy to the level of national development strategy. The government plans to mitigate the impact of population decline by expanding the use of older workers, investing in talent education across all age groups and attracting overseas talent.