Victor Cha calls for US-North Korea hotline, says North Korea-Russia ties demand urgent response

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the United States and North Korea need to establish direct communication channels, including a hotline, to manage the North Korean nuclear crisis. While such a hotline could draw criticism as tacit recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state, Cha said the absence of any means of communication poses a greater danger.

In an interview published Wednesday in the Asahi Shimbun on North Korea's denuclearization, Cha said, "Policy must be realistic," and added, "If we want to avoid a crisis over nuclear weapons, we need some kind of framework to manage it."

He said the international community should keep denuclearization as a long-term goal while acknowledging that North Korea has already acquired a significant nuclear capability, and should pursue arms reduction and nonproliferation negotiations.

Cha has also recently argued for suspending South Korea's "Kill Chain" preemptive strike system, which is designed to neutralize North Korean threats before they are launched.

He said it is not realistic to expect North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons immediately, given how far its nuclear development has advanced.

He said the ultimate goal of denuclearization should be maintained, but that negotiations should begin with incremental steps that are immediately achievable. He specifically mentioned halting the production of additional fissile material, limiting missile deployments and banning further nuclear tests.

Establishing direct communication channels between the United States and North Korea was also presented as one approach to managing the North Korean nuclear threat.

Cha acknowledged that installing a US-North Korea hotline could invite criticism that Washington was effectively recognizing Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear power, but said the complete absence of any channel to manage a crisis between two nuclear-armed parties poses an even greater risk.

He also identified the rapid deepening of ties between North Korea and Russia as an issue requiring urgent attention.

Cha said North Korea's growing closeness with Russia is one of the most significant shifts in the security environment on the Korean Peninsula in recent years, and said the United States and its allies have yet to take meaningful steps to undermine that relationship.

Meanwhile, Hiraiwa Shunji, a professor at Nanzan University and an expert on Korean Peninsula affairs, echoed Cha's view on managing North Korea's nuclear program in the same Asahi Shimbun dialogue. "Since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, we have unfortunately been placed in a situation where we have no choice but to coexist with its nuclear arsenal," Hiraiwa said. "Leaving it unaddressed is actually more dangerous."

He said South Korea and Japan would play an increasingly important role in ensuring that, when the United States enters arms reduction talks with North Korea, Washington does not adopt the attitude that resolving the intercontinental ballistic missile threat to the American mainland is all that matters.