Import prices rebound for first time in 4 months as oil surges on US-Iran tensions

Import prices rebounded for the first time in four months in September as a renewed US-Iran conflict sent global oil prices sharply higher, while export prices fell for a second consecutive month under pressure from a weaker won-dollar exchange rate.

The Bank of Korea released its preliminary September 2026 export and import price indexes and trade indexes on Friday, showing import prices in won terms rose 1.7 percent from the previous month. Import prices had fallen for three consecutive months — down 4.2 percent in June, 1.0 percent in July and 2.2 percent in August — before turning higher in September. Compared with the same month a year earlier, they were up 17.6 percent.

"Despite the fall in the exchange rate, international oil prices rose sharply, pushing up mining products and coal and petroleum products, resulting in a 1.7 percent month-on-month increase," said Kim Min-seon, a senior official at the Bank of Korea's price statistics team.

The monthly average price of Dubai crude oil rose 28.1 percent in September to $113.7 per barrel, up from $88.8 the previous month. That was 62.4 percent higher than a year earlier. Over the same period, the won-dollar exchange rate fell 3.4 percent, from 1,406.3 won to 1,359 won per dollar.

Breaking down imports by end use, raw materials rose 9.6 percent month-on-month, led by a 10.8 percent gain in mining products as crude oil prices climbed 21.6 percent. Intermediate goods edged down 1.7 percent: coal and petroleum products rose 1.5 percent — with jet fuel up 14.1 percent and bunker C oil up 5.6 percent — but primary metal products fell 2.8 percent, dragged down by a 2.2 percent drop in refined aluminum. Capital goods and consumer goods fell 2.4 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, from the previous month.

Measured in contract currency terms, which strips out the exchange rate effect, import prices rose 4.9 percent from the previous month.

Lee Heung-hu, head of the price statistics team, said that through mid-October both the exchange rate and international oil prices had fallen compared with September, which would act as a downward factor for import prices, but added that uncertainty surrounding oil prices remains high. He also said that on a year-on-year basis, oil prices had risen sharply through mid-October, meaning import prices would likely continue to post double-digit annual gains.

The export price index fell 0.8 percent from the previous month, extending a decline that began in August, when it dropped 3.5 percent. Coal and petroleum products rose on the back of higher oil prices, but most other categories fell as the won weakened. Year-on-year, export prices were up 40.9 percent, marking 13 consecutive months of annual gains.

By category, manufactured goods fell 0.8 percent month-on-month. Coal and petroleum products rose 8.5 percent — with gasoline up 17.9 percent and diesel up 8.3 percent — but transportation equipment fell 3.2 percent, including a 3.4 percent drop in RVs. Computers, electronics and optical equipment fell 1.8 percent, with DRAM prices down 1.2 percent. Agricultural, forestry and fishery products edged down 0.3 percent, led by a 1.0 percent decline in frozen seafood.

In contract currency terms, export prices rose 2.6 percent from the previous month.

Turning to trade volume indexes, the export volume index surged 32.1 percent year-on-year in September, driven by gains in computers, electronics and optical equipment, as well as machinery and equipment including semiconductor manufacturing equipment. That was the largest annual increase since January 2010, when the index rose 42 percent — a span of 16 years and eight months. The export value index rose 89.2 percent.

The import volume index rose 11.1 percent year-on-year, boosted by computers, electronics and optical equipment and machinery and equipment, while the import value index climbed 26.9 percent.

The net barter terms of trade index, which measures how many units of imports can be purchased with one unit of exports, rose 25.4 percent year-on-year as export prices climbed 43.2 percent and import prices rose 14.2 percent. The gain was smaller than the record 27.1 percent increase recorded in August. The Bank of Korea said export price gains broadened, centered on computers, electronics and optical equipment, but import prices — particularly for mining products — rose even more sharply as August's oil price increases fed through, narrowing the terms-of-trade improvement.

The income terms of trade index, which measures the volume of imports that can be financed by total export revenues, rose 65.7 percent year-on-year as both the net barter terms of trade index (up 25.4 percent) and the export volume index (up 32.1 percent) advanced. That marked a second consecutive month of record annual gains, following a 59.9 percent increase in August.