US defense secretary, Indo-Pacific commander may both visit China amid push to expand military ties

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. Samuel Paparo may both visit China in the near future, raising the prospect that the top US military commander in the Pacific could travel to Beijing for the first time in roughly 11 years as Washington and Beijing work to expand communication channels aimed at preventing military conflict.

Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, raised the possibility of both visits while speaking by video link Friday at the Global Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance Forum held in Sanya, Hainan Province, according to the South China Morning Post and other outlets.

"I understand that Secretary Hegseth and Admiral Paparo may be visiting China soon," Orlins said, adding that the visits "would help institutionalize regular communication between the two countries' military authorities."

Orlins said the two sides should regularize military exchanges at all levels to prevent conflict stemming from miscalculation, and put in place mechanisms to de-escalate tensions quickly through rapid communication even if an incident does occur.

Orlins also said the risk of an accidental military clash between the United States and China is greater in the South China Sea than in the Taiwan Strait.

The South China Morning Post, citing sources, said the two countries have been discussing a possible Hegseth visit to China for several months and that a trip before the end of the year remains possible.

Following the US-China summit held in Washington in September, the two sides also discussed the possibility of reciprocal visits between Hegseth and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun.

Hegseth previously visited Beijing in May when President Donald Trump made a state visit to China.

However, Hegseth's political standing has grown uncertain following the recent US midterm elections.

After the Republican Party's defeat in the midterms, impeachment moves have emerged from within Republican ranks over issues including the conduct of the war with Iran, while the Democratic Party is also preparing a probe into the management of the Defense Department.

Trump has continued to express confidence in Hegseth, but the impeachment pressure could become a complicating factor for any planned trip to China.

Attention has also turned to whether Paparo will make the trip.

If the visit goes ahead, it would mark the first time since 2015 — roughly 11 years — that the top US military commander in the Pacific has visited China, and could serve as a symbolic milestone in the expansion of bilateral military exchanges.

Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, told the South China Morning Post that a Paparo visit could strengthen working-level communication between the two countries' military authorities.

In practice, the two countries have been broadening dialogue channels in recent months to prevent military conflict.

According to the US Department of Defense, defense officials from both sides held their annual Crisis Communications and Prevention Working Group meeting in Washington on Monday and Tuesday, discussing ways to reduce military risks.

Earlier, in August, Paparo met Yang Zhibin, commander of the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command, in Canada to discuss the importance of high-level communication in preventing military miscalculation.