Over 8,000 applicants chase 4 units in Paju, Gwacheon in 'lottery' apartment subscription frenzy

A surge of homebuyers desperate to escape the jeonse and monthly rent crunch — combined with a broader rush to own property — is driving competition ratios of several thousand to one for so-called "lottery" unsold and contract-canceled apartment units in the Greater Seoul area. More than 8,000 applicants recently piled into just four units in Paju's Unjeong new town and Gwacheon, both well-connected to Seoul. Even as some complexes in the unranked subscription market fall short of their targets due to location or pricing, high-profit-margin units are drawing an additional wave of last-chance demand from buyers eager to apply before the government moves to have public agencies purchase such inventory.

According to the Korea Real Estate Board's subscription portal, 2,564 people applied for one unit of the 84-square-meter Type A and 2,417 for one unit of Type B at Unjeong Jungang-yeok Woomilin The Centum in Paju's Unjeong new town, which held an unranked subscription Monday. Both units drew competition ratios exceeding 2,000-to-1.

On the same day, more than 3,000 prospective homebuyers applied for contract-canceled units — relisted due to illegal transactions — in Gwacheon. A total of 3,264 people applied for two units of the 59-square-meter type at Gwacheon The Etres Prestige, the last complex to be supplied in the Knowledge and Information Town, recording a competition ratio of 1,632-to-1.

Unranked subscriptions are currently open only to people without existing homeownership, and local governments may further restrict eligibility to residents of the relevant area. The government had originally lifted the residency requirement in 2023 as unsold inventory concerns mounted during a real estate downturn, and also allowed homeowners to apply. But after a string of overheating cases — including Dongtan-yeok Lotte Castle, which drew 2.94 million applicants for unranked subscriptions in 2024 — the government reinstated the residency requirement last year. Units relisted due to illegal transactions had always been restricted to local residents without existing homeownership.

Despite the no-homeownership requirement, competition ratios remain in the thousands-to-one range because the units offer a path to homeownership at below-market prices. In the second half of this year in particular, the jeonse and monthly rent crisis originating in Seoul has spread to major areas of Gyeonggi Province and pushed apartment prices sharply higher, making the price advantage of unranked units offered at their original pre-sale prices even more attractive.

Both complexes are subject to the price ceiling on new apartments and were supplied at prices hundreds of millions of won below market rates. The pre-sale prices at Unjeong Jungang-yeok Woomilin The Centum are 542.5 million won ($404,000) for the 84A type and 534.5 million won for the 84B type; even with balcony extension and optional add-on costs, the all-in price comes to between 561.06 million and 570.63 million won. The complex's highest recorded actual transaction price was 611 million won on Oct. 1, and this month's actual transaction price stands at 608 million won, putting the pre-sale price about 40 million won lower. Compared with the 680 million won asking price listed on the market, it is more than 100 million won cheaper.

Gwacheon The Etres Prestige has been dubbed a "1 billion won lottery" for its even larger potential gains. Pre-sale prices range from 840.35 million to 857.15 million won depending on the unit's floor and orientation. If a buyer inherits the balcony extension and optional add-ons chosen by the original contract holder, the actual purchase price rises to between 884.02 million and 898.62 million won. A 59-square-meter unit at the nearby Raemian Suhr complex in Wonmun-dong traded for 1.9 billion won in September, meaning a successful applicant could pocket a market-price gain of around 1 billion won.

Park Ji-min, head of the Wolyong Apartment Subscription Research Institute, said the figures were remarkable given the restrictions in place. "Considering that eligibility is limited to local residents without existing homeownership, these are extremely high competition ratios," Park said. "The price ceiling on new apartments means Gwacheon is practically a half-price apartment, and Unjeong also has a safety margin of around 100 million to 200 million won, so genuine end-user demand from people without existing homes has concentrated there."

Beyond price competitiveness, analysts say a "last train" mentality has added to the rush at both complexes. Through its Aug. 13 real estate measures, the government announced plans to have Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) and other public agencies purchase unranked and contract-canceled units in regulated areas of the metropolitan area first, then use them as universal public rental housing. The government aims to revise the enforcement decree of the Special Act on Public Housing and implement the change as early as December. Once the policy takes effect, the lottery-style chances available to young people and newlywed couples with low subscription scores will shrink — fueling demand from those who want to try their luck before the rules change.

Within the unranked subscription market, however, the divide is stark. Hwaseo-yeok Hosu Park Honorsville in Suwon, which also held an unranked subscription Monday, drew only 78 applicants for 169 units, falling short with a ratio of 0.46-to-1. Anseong Ayang District B-2 Block Geumseong Baekjo Yemiji in Anseong, Gyeonggi Province, offered 73 unranked units late last month and received just 12 applications. Sungui-yeok Norway Forest The Sky in Incheon attracted exactly 13 applicants for 13 units.

Park said complexes subject to the price ceiling would continue to see similar competition ratios until the public rental conversion policy takes effect. "However, the volume of unranked units is not large to begin with, so even if they are redirected to public rental housing, the supply effect will be limited — and it may only reduce opportunities for those waiting to apply," Park said.